![]() ![]() ![]() “It’s kind of a Rube Goldberg scenario,” she said. ![]() Susan Hough, a research seismologist with the geological survey, said she thought such a chain of events was unlikely. “If it comes within about 25 miles of the San Andreas, it increases the chances of an earthquake there by about 150 times.” “The Garlock is the link in the chain,” Dr. The Garlock is perpendicular to it, and the researchers found that a major quake on the Garlock had the potential to set off one on the San Andreas, if the Garlock rupture came near the bigger fault. Of far greater concern is the San Andreas, the major fault that runs from northern to Southern California. They said there was a 2.3 percent chance of a Garlock quake over the next year.īut the Garlock runs through a relatively unpopulated area. In their analysis, they showed that the Ridgecrest quakes changed stresses along a nearby fault, the Garlock, and increased the possibility of a major quake on a 75-mile length of it. But in general these kinds of stress changes are temporary the likelihood of another quake decreases over time. The quakes, of magnitudes 6.4 and 7.1, resulted in one death, about two dozen injuries and at least $1 billion in damage.Īt Ridgecrest, the changes from the first earthquake triggered the second 34 hours later. Stein and a longtime collaborator, Shinji Toda of Tohoku University in Japan modeled changes in stresses in the complex structure of surrounding faults that resulted from the two 2019 quakes, which occurred in sequence near Ridgecrest, Calif., about 120 miles north of Los Angeles. Currently the geological survey forecasts a 31 percent probability of a 7.5-magnitude quake occurring in the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years.ĭr. ![]() In California’s Inland Empire, the anger has turned to widespread action.Įarthquake forecasts describe the likelihood of a quake occurring over a given time period they are not predictions of a specific event at a specific time.
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